WSL Study Outlines Five Possible Futures for Switzerland

Researchers at the Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research have developed five possible future scenarios for Switzerland, exploring how society, the economy, and the climate could evolve by the year 2100.

The study highlights that it is impossible to predict Switzerland’s exact future. However, understanding different development paths is crucial because social, political, and economic changes directly affect resource use, infrastructure, and climate impact.

To build these scenarios, researchers collaborated with around 60 scientists from 20 institutions. A computer model was used to generate consistent projections based on global climate frameworks developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Three of the five scenarios are based on global Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, ranging from a highly technological, renewable-energy-driven society to a fragmented future marked by inequality and weakened state structures.

In the most divided scenario, society splits between a wealthy elite and a disadvantaged majority, while another scenario predicts long-term reliance on fossil fuels, resulting in severe environmental damage and high economic costs later in the century.

Two additional Switzerland-specific scenarios were also developed. One describes a country that prioritizes economic growth through fossil fuels before facing environmental consequences. The other focuses on social cohesion and well-being over pure economic expansion.

Lead researcher Lena Gubler emphasized that none of the scenarios are considered more likely than the others. Instead, they are designed as “if-then” models to explore possible outcomes rather than predict the future.

The National Centre for Climate Services (NCCS) has also released new data showing projected greenhouse gas emissions for each scenario up to 2100, providing a foundation for long-term climate planning and policy decisions.