ILO Warns of 14 Million Job Loss Risk

The International Labour Organization (ILO), based in Geneva, has warned that an escalating crisis in the Middle East could lead to severe global job losses if oil prices continue to surge.

According to a new report published on Monday, the organization estimates that up to 14 million full-time equivalent jobs could be lost this year if the price of oil rises by 50% above early-year averages. By 2027, this number could increase dramatically to around 38 million jobs worldwide.

The ILO report highlights that global working hours may fall by 0.5% this year and by 1.1% next year, reflecting a broader slowdown in economic activity linked to energy price shocks and geopolitical instability.

Real labour income is also expected to decline significantly. The report projects losses of 1.1% this year and up to 3% next year, representing an estimated global income reduction of $1.1 trillion and $3 trillion respectively.

Unemployment rates are also expected to rise modestly but steadily, increasing by 0.1 percentage points this year and 0.5 percentage points in the following year.

The report notes that regions such as Arab states and Asia-Pacific economies are likely to be the most heavily affected due to their strong economic ties to Gulf oil markets and energy supply chains.

In the most severe scenario, working hours in Arab countries could drop by more than 10%, a level of disruption described by ILO economists as significantly worse than the early impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

ILO Chief Economist Sangheon Lee described the situation as a “slow and potentially long shock,” warning that the effects could persist if geopolitical tensions and energy instability continue.

The findings highlight growing concerns about how regional conflicts can trigger global economic ripple effects, particularly through energy prices, inflation, and labour market instability.